Inventory Levels Increased But Remain Low - Bellingham Is Still A Sellers' Market
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Bellingham & Whatcom County Market Data
Use my Language of Real Estate page to help you understand the market data in the reports below.
AUGUST 2023 WHATCOM COUNTY MARKET REPORT
New listing and sales activity have both declined, compared to July. Based on the recent decline in sales activity, despite the decline in number of new listings, months of inventory has gone up to 3 months in Whatcom County, compared to 2.7 months in July. For Bellingham, months of inventory dropped from 2.5 months in July to 2.1 in August.
So the question is, will we continue to see home sales decline, as is typical for the fall and winter? If so, expect inventory levels to climb, unless we see an even steeper decline in new listings, compared to sales activity.
JUNE 2023 WHATCOM COUNTY MARKET REPORT
Wow! These are one again interesting times. New listings are down 38% from last year! We owe a lot of that to homeowners with low-interest rates mortgages who are choosing to stay put, rather than having their mortgage payment as much as double, if they were to move.
Up until this month, this led homes sales to have declined, compared to a year ago. But not in June! Pending sales, the most current reflection of market activity, increased 7%. Days on market have also declined, compared to recent months, although days on market has increased compared to last June.
We are continuing to see bidding wars on some homes, but the offering 20%+ over asking price is now rare. Between that cooldown in the market craziness and mortgage interest rates hurting affordability, we have been seeing average home prices have declined. But average home prices have fluctuated in the last year, so the amount of the decline varies based on what timeframe you are comparing current prices to: 9% compared to June of last year, and 4% year-to-date.
But buyers who thought they would wait on the sidelines for prices to drop are finding any savings in home prices is more than eaten up by a larger mortgage payment, thanks to higher interest rates.
MAY 2023 WHATCOM COUNTY MARKET REPORT
Spring typically means more real estate activity, with more homes listed for sale. This year is no exception, although not as many home were listed in May, compared to May of 2022. Correspondingly, the number of homes that pended and sold in May has declined, compared to a year ago. Overall, the inventory of homes for sale has increased significantly compared to a year ago, but inventory levels remain low, leaving us clearly still in a Seller's Market. Refer to my Language of Real Estate - Months Supply of Inventory if you want to understand how we determine whether it's a buyers' vs. sellers' market.
While average home prices have declined compared to a year ago, average prices in Whatcom County have actually consistently risen since the low in January of 2023. In fact, the average price for homes sold since the beginning of the year has increased by 10%!
I have seen several desirable homes create bidding wars, driving up prices as much as 25% over list price. I am also seeing more homes setting offer review dates, which is an indication of strong demand. This indication is confirmed by the sales price compared to list price, which remains over 100%.
APRIL 2023 WHATCOM COUNTY MARKET REPORT
Spring typically means more real estate activity, with more homes listed for sale. This has not been the case this April - new listings are down 39%, compared to April of last year. This has resulted in an increase in the average list price, compared to a year ago.
Closed and pending homes has declined from last year, while days on market has increased. Frustrated buyers are not letting an increase in interest rates discourage demand.
MARCH 2023 WHATCOM COUNTY MARKET REPORT
New listings activity is down from last year, as is pending and closed sales. As buyers learn to accept higher interest rates means higher mortgage payments, they are seeing that homes are continuing to sell for close to asking price, as inventory levels remain very low.
While homes are taking longer to sell compared to a year ago, most sellers are not having to lower their price to find a buyer. Home prices have risen in February and March, compared to the low in January of 2023.
FEBRUARY 2023 WHATCOM COUNTY MARKET REPORT
Days on market has increased compared to a year ago and percentage of list price is slightly down, but remains at close to list price (98.5%). This is not surprising, considering this is the slow time of the year. But if you compare this data to last year, January of 2022 was not as slow as we typically see - the market was crazy!
On the other hand, the average sales price is up 5% from last year and months supply of inventory, while up significantly from this time last year, is still very low, at just over 1.5%. Remember, a balanced market (neither Sellers' or Buyers' market) is 4-6 months of inventory. If you would like to understand more about what I means by months of inventory, check out my Language of Real Estate page.
Currently on a weekly basis (in Mid-March), I continue to see pending listings exceed new listings by a lot. Wait and see what the busy springs brings - more buyers or more sellers?
JANUARY 2023 WHATCOM COUNTY MARKET REPORT
Days on market have creeped up and percentage of list price is slightly down. This is not surprising, considering this is the slow time of the year. But if you compare this data to last year, January of 2022 was not as slow as we typically see - the market was crazy!
On the other hand, the average sales price is up 15% from last year and months supply of inventory, while up from last year, is still very low, at below 2%. Remember, a balanced market (neither Sellers' or Buyers' market) is 4-6 months of inventory. If you would like to understand more about what I means by months of inventory, check out my Language of Real Estate page.
DECEMBER 2022 WHATCOM COUNTY MARKET REPORT
In the last month, I've been surprised by the number of homes that have pended, especially considering how few homes have listed (which is typical in December). That feeling has been confirmed by December's market stats. New listings are down 19% from a year ago, and 59% from a month ago.
Because the last 2 years have not experienced typical seasonal slowdowns, I expected pending sales to have dropped more significantly in December. But they were only down 29% from last year. The number of homes that pended in November was 89% of the number of new listings; but more homes pended than were listed in December.
As long as we continue to see demand (reflected by pending sales) exceed new supply, I don't expect to see a major market shift in the near future. At 2 months of inventory, Whatcom County remains firmly in a Sellers' Market territory. Inventory levels have actually dropped compared to August-October! It will be interesting to see how many sellers choose to list their homes this coming Spring, and how listing activity compares to sales activity. Stay tuned!
NOVEMBER 2022 WHATCOM COUNTY MARKET REPORT
That feeling you have that there's not a lot going on in real estate? It's for a reason. First, we are heading into the holidays, combined with the typical winter slowdown. If you have only been actively looking at real estate for the last 2 or so years, you might say "what winter slowdown?". The prior 2 years have most definitely been an exception! Real estate sales historically experience a seasonal slowdown in the winter.
Yes, inventory levels have increased, compared to both a month ago and a year ago. But prices are holding steady. I believe the increase in number of homes selling for less than sales price is because homeowners are being unrealistic. Yes, their neighbor's home sold 6 months ago for 10% over asking, but that was because the market was crazy, with bidding wars driving up prices. If you are listing your home for or above that crazy $ your neighbor got, you are likely due for a surprise.
OCTOBER 2022 BELLINGHAM's SOUTHSIDE MARKET REPORT
It's hard to pinpoint data for Bellingham's southside, so I focus on zip code 98225, which does include some areas to the North, but also covers all of the southside. Because Bellingham's southside is a desirable area: when I notice a downturn in Whatcom County, I often see different data for Bellingham's southside.
New listings are down nearly 20%, but pending sales are down significantly - 46%. On the other hand, closed sales in October 2022 were 29% higher than in 2021. The median sales price has dropped minimally compared to a year ago (less than 3%). Homes are now selling for less than 100% of list price - 98%. The question remains whether that's because sellers were not adjusting their expectation sufficiently to the new market, where multiple offers are much more rare.
OCTOBER 2022 WHATCOM COUNTY MARKET REPORT
Inventory levels remain steady from September. New listing activity has declined 18% compared to a year ago in October, but pending sales have dropped more significantly, by 38%. Likewise, days on market is up significantly compared to a year ago - 74%.
SEPTEMBER 2022 WHATCOM COUNTY MARKET REPORT
Inventory levels are double what they were a year ago, but they still are relatively low. The data below is for all Whatcom County - inventory for Bellingham is slightly lower, at 2.2 months. If we compare new listings for the first 6 months of 2022 to the same time period in 2021, there were 3% less listings in 2022. However, if we compare new listing for the last 4 months of 2022 to the same time period of 2021, there were 16% more listings in 2022. This more recent listing activity is having an impact on inventory levels. Homes are selling on average for slightly less than list price - we are no longer seeing multiple over-asking offers on new listings, especially with increased interest rates.
AUGUST 2022 WHATCOM COUNTY MARKET REPORT
Inventory levels have definitely increased in the last few months, although a buyer's market means 6+ months supply of inventory, so we have a ways to go before we experience a shift. As noted in my August 23 blog post, a lot of this inventory does not have to do with homes lingering on the market (not days on market is averaging 24 days). It has to do with more home owners choosing to their list home for sale that we typically see in the summer: There were 157 new listings in May of 2022, compared to 150 in May of 2021.
There were 213 new listings in June of 2022, compared to 176 in June of 2021.
There were 193 new listings in July of 2022, compared to 154 in July of 2021.
JULY 2022 WHATCOM COUNTY MARKET REPORT
What can I say? NWMLS is having trouble with the data for July - I keep checking back, but it's still not updated!
JUNE 2022 WHATCOM COUNTY MARKET REPORT
While home prices continue to climb and homes are selling for over asking, there is evidence of some softening, although not much. Days on market has dropped to an unbelievably low 15 days, but inventory has climbed dramatically in one mouth. This is partly due to closed sales slowing down in June, but mainly because there were so many more homes listed than in both May of 2022 (a month ago) and June of 2021 (a year ago).
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